NFL Week 4 odds, picks: Texans get first win plus more best bets from Tom Fornelli

I had a horrible week final week, going 0-Three with my picks, and it dropped my file on the season to 4-5. As a substitute of being upset about it, I am utilizing it as motivation this week. After going 0-Three final week I made a decision to lookup how 0-3 NFL groups have achieved in opposition to the unfold because the begin of the 2010 season, and I seen a development. Since that 2010 season, there have been 34 groups who opened their season with a 0-Three mark. This season there are three of them: Oakland, Houston and Arizona. Nicely, what if I advised you that these 34 0-Three groups have gone 20-13-1 ATS in Week 4 following these gradual begins? How about if I advised you that those self same groups went 16-9 ATS after they have been underdogs of their Week 4 video games? That is a development I am seeking to capitalize on this week, and we begin in Indianapolis. Houston Texans (+1.5) at Indianapolis Colts I already talked about that 0-Three groups are 16-9 ATS as canine in Week 4 since 2010, however that file improves to 11-4 after they’re on the street too. Nicely, Houston is an 0-Three street canine this week. Nonetheless, whereas that development is encouraging, I am not simply going to depend on it for my decide. I preferred Houston right here earlier than I found the development and beloved it even more afterward. The Texans have an excessive amount of expertise to proceed enjoying as poorly as they’ve been, and I count on a regression to the imply this week in opposition to the Colts. Texans 24, Colts 21 Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (-4.5) at Denver Broncos I determine that, sooner or later, the Chiefs protection goes to price it a recreation. It merely has to. I simply do not count on it to be this week, as a result of the Broncos aren’t excellent. Denver’s two wins have come in opposition to Seattle and Oakland, who aren’t good themselves, and the 2 wins got here by a complete of 4 factors. The workforce we noticed final week in opposition to Baltimore is a greater illustration of what this Denver workforce is, and I am unable to envision a world the place a workforce led by Case Keenum can sustain with this Chiefs offense for 60 minutes. Chiefs 31, Broncos 17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (Beneath 47) Whereas the comeback was entertaining, FitzMagic got here to an finish on Monday night time. Now the Bucs aren’t even certain if they’re going to maintain rolling with Ryan Fitzpatrick or carry Jameis Winston again. Whoever traces up beneath heart, they’re going to be dealing with a a lot harder protection than any they’ve encountered up to now this season. The Bears protection has been incredible exterior of the 30 minutes when Aaron Rodgers was firebombing it, however that is simply what he does to the Bears. I see the Bears limiting the Tampa offense all day, and I do not see the Bears offense doing a lot as a result of it hasn’t all season. Take the beneath. Bears 21, Buccaneers 17 SportsLine Bonus Decide Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers and Ravens will play on Sunday Evening Soccer this week with the Steelers set as 3-point favorites over the Ravens, and the full set at 51. I’ve a bonus decide for this recreation out there over at SportsLine. Head on over to my web page to see which play I am making. Final week 0-3 Season 4-5 https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-week-4-odds-picks-texans-get-first-win-plus-more-best-bets-from-tom-fornelli/